Thursday 23 January 2014

After a Bloomberg Poll

Will 2014 be a great year for investments? Do the investors truly believe that 2014 will be the best year since 2009? Let’s take a look at the poll results on various indicators discussed in this survey. About the economies 72% of the global investors have the confidence that the US economy is improving. In that, 22% think the US economy is stable and 6% say it is deteriorating. Global investors are not hopeful about Chinese and Brazilian economy. It's not a surprise when 21% of the global investors opined that they don’t have any idea about Brazilian economy.

Which are the main factors going to drive the US economy in 2014? Is it the increased oil and gas production or more companies investing due to the rise in confidence? Whether the growth in the job market will act as a catalyst? Or the improvement in real-estate and auto industry? The increase in the US population will demand more houses. In the US one birth happens in every 8 seconds, a death in every 12 seconds, and one international migrant in every 40 seconds. In 2012 the US population was around 313 million and in 2013 it’s 315 million. Consumer spending will increase, but the borrowing could be on the lesser side.

Now when we talk about the Brazil, the October 2013 riots may be an ugly chapter which Brazilians may forget. It was the outcome of the corrupt political system, failing health care, ineffective educational system and raising expenditures. Finance minister, Guido Mantega is very much hopeful about the Brazilian economy in 2014. He claims that Brazil has overcome primary fiscal surplus target.

The target was 73 billion reals but they claim they have achieved 75 billion reais in 2013. The reais went down by 13% in 2013, got an appreciation of 0.4% to 2.3 / USD till Jan 5th. He agrees that the trade surplus was lowest in the last 13 years that is $2.56 billion. Brazil expects a 4% advance in 2014. This Latin American country has faith in oil exports, higher tax receipts and support for infrastructure, natural resources and transport.

In this Global poll no one doubted the opportunities in the US, 4% global investors who participated in the survey thinks that US economy will grow by 6%, 3% of them believe the growth will be of 40% and 2% says it will 44% and 2% believes the growth will be less than 8%. That time will prove.


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