Tuesday 30 July 2013

FDI Flow an Analysis

As per the UNCTAD report on Global Investments, FDI for 2013 will remain almost the same as it was in 2012, $1.32 trillion with an expectation of 10% hike. Transnational corporations are expected to invest cash holdings in various areas. From $1.45 trillion of FDI in 2013 is to expected to go up to $1.6 trillion in 2014 and $1.8trillion in 2015. This growth will be subject to the changes in the global financial system along with the significant policy uncertainty. The proposed FDI recipients will be the developing economies than the developed ones.

Africa which has registered a year-on-year growth shows a rise in the FDI inflow up by 5% making it $50 billion. The outflow in the FDI also has risen to $14billion in 2012. Africa the favorite investment destination for the developing countries like India, Malaysia, China and South Africa in terms of FDI stock.

The extractive sectors in Mauritania, the newest oil producers in the Africa, Democratic Republic of Congo, Mozambique and Uganda are the major places where emerging economies invests. Other than extractive sector consumer oriented manufacturing sector also saw a growth in FDI inflow.

The whole of 2012 witnessed a decline in the flow of FDI in Asia from 7% to $407 billion which was much evident in South Asia where the FDI flow fell down to 24%. Among the top 20 FDI recipients China was third and Hong Kong was fourth other Asian countries including Singapore and India is also in this top 20 list even then the FDI inflow declined. The FDI inflow in East Asia and South East Asia was moderately increased but the decline in the South Asia hampered that too. Outflows from the region showed an increase in which Chinese outflow was $84 billion in 2012 whereas Turkey the main investor with 73% growth in outflow ie, $4billion in 2012.

FDI inflow in the Latin American and Caribbean in 2012 was almost the same as in 2011 which was $244 billion. The rise in FDI to South America caused a decline in FDI inflow to Caribbean and Latin American countries. Rapidly expanding middle class, natural resources including oil and natural gases are the main attractions of South America. FDI outflow in the Latin American and the Caribbean region witnessed a decline to $103 billion.



Thursday 25 July 2013

The rise and fall of Detroit and their revival plans

General Motors Corporation which is one of the biggest automakers in the world headquartered in Detroit. Ford Motor Corporation also headquartered in Detroit with 213000 employees worldwide in their 90 plants and other facilities. Chrysler Group, which is located in Auburn Hills Michigan has their Historical Services in Detroit, which is considered as the one among the Big Three (Ford, General Motors, and Chrysler) in the US

Visteon Corporation which manufactures automotive parts , SBC a telecommunication company, healthcare companies like Trinity Health, Henry Ford Health System, pharmaceutical company Pfizer Inc, systems technology company Delphi Corporations, global shipping company FedEx Corporation, cable network company Comcast and the list go on. Even then Detroit went bankrupt!

The city of Detroit in the State of Michigan, home for many MNCs filed for bankruptcy protection, that too after a long economic crisis. And the reasons include 1) decline in the population since 2000 to 26%. 2) Unemployment to 18.6%. 3) Tax revenue lowered affecting the city services. 4) Exodus due to high crime rates. 5) Mismanagement by its Democrat government ruling since 1962.6) The global decline in the automobile industry7) Freeway construction combined of demolition of houses and industrial buildings8) Illiteracy about 50% poverty of 60% among children, racism which led to the 1967 riots, from 2000 to 2010 Michigan lost 48% of manufacturing jobs.

What are the revival and reinvestment plans?

The City has already designed a plan for the restructuring which could save $200 million per year but just like austerity methods this plan will surely impose more restrictions and burdens on the residents and the workforces.

1) Job cuts which makes 2, 700 unemployed people but it resulted in annual savings of $100million
2) Implementation of City Employment Terms and thus to reduce labor costs
3) The renewed CET may result in savings worth $102 million annually
4) More initiatives to increase the revenue
5) Reduced operating costs
6) To defer the capital expenditure
7) Demolition of vacant structures
8) Executing Consent Agreement of Financial Advisory Board
9) Appointing Emergency Manager

Reinvestment Plans

The main investment will be in Public safety, mainly in the police department to make a reasonable reduction the high crime rates which has made Detroit an unsafe place for peaceful living. Another area which massive investment going to take place is Fire and EMS( Emergency Management Services).

Thursday 18 July 2013

Countries Trying Luck in The US Debt : An Analysis

The clock ran out of digits in 2008 when the US national debt exceeded $ 10 trillion! It was installed by a New York real-estate developer Seymour Drust, showed the amount of the $16,738,230,684,008.83 debt as per Monday July 15th. It will be interesting to know which all countries are supporting the US with credit.

The top rank goes to the US itself and you know how? It has taken $263.8 billion from its own insurance companies,the US savings bond are about $183.8 billion, mutual funds of $889.1 billion, $615.6 billion from pension funds, State and local government pension funds worth $190.3 billion, $492.2 billion from State and local governments, $337.4 billion from Depository institutions and it goes on like that. The below account is excluding this data.

The Chinese agenda of keeping Yuan weaker against dollar boost up exports creating more job opportunities for its people by lowering the demand for the US products. As of March 2013 China owns $1.250 trillion of the US debt, which is 22% of the entire debt amount of $5.6758 trillion of the debt owned by other nations. They buy more treasuries when dollar value falls makes the more demand of dollar. Being the prime banker for the US, China's threats of selling debt will affect the US as in 2009.
The second largest foreign creditor to the US is Japan as it holds $1.12 trillion of the US debt but Japanese own 95% of the Japanese debt. In Japan public debt is 219% of GDP. The updated news says that Japanese investors are selling off the US treasuries and the month of May saw a sale of $30 billion and in the month of April it was $15.5 billion!

With $253.4 billion in the US Treasuries Brazil becomes the fourth biggest lender to the US. Brazil's the 6th largest economy has attracted aggressive investment by many countries including other major economies. The Center for Economics and Business Research recently listed the ten largest economies in the world shows the U.S, China, Japan, Germany, France, Brazil, UK, Italy, Russia and India to be those countries where Brazil supplanted UK to be the 6th largest economy.

The oil exporters together get the fourth place as the lender to the US but country to country report gives Taiwan the next place after Brazil. This Asian Tiger group country has seen an economic boom with industrialization in the later half of the 20th century. The economy is export driven and the main locations are US and Europe. Taiwan holds $196.6 billion of US debt.

The secret banking facility in Switzerland play as the main factor in owning $192.7 billion in the US debt which is not a surprise because 27% of the world's assets is invested in Switzerland and this country is behind Taiwan in the list.
Russian President Mr Vladimir Putin called the US a parasite on the global economy during the Russian presidential election campaign in 2011 ... Russia knows better!!!!!!!! He clearly stated that the US is living beyond their means and blamed the systemic malfunctions in the US. Russia own $162.9 billion of the US debt which shows they have to lose much due to default but nothing scares Russia, not even the debt-ceiling debate as Russia increases the debt amount by billions. And Russia is in the 6th place.

Luxembourg which has the 7th place is comparatively a small country owns $144. 7 billion of the US debt! This country follows the tax pattern of its neighbor Belgium that makes Luxembourg an investor friendly country.

The secret accounts in Swiss Banks might be popular got changed by the Belgium government but still, banking in Belgium is preferred by the world due to the tax breaks and other benefits provided to the investors for its offshore accounts. This tax break makes Belgium being the biggest purchaser of the US debt and as per January 2013 records Belgium owns $143.5 billion of the US debt. But Belgium bank acts as the custodian for the offshore investors and the US treasury doesn't track the nationality. Belgium ranks 8th.

Hong Kong exports the biggest brands to the US and the US exports diamonds, aircraft, and telecommunication to Hong Kong etc. Despite being part of China, Hong Kong's economy is open and has a close association with US, with fair amount invested in the US debt and the US dollar is the most stable reserve in the world. The world's central banks have saved around 62% of their money in dollars! Hong Kong owns $142.9 billion US public debt by the records on January 2013 is placed 9th.

Friday 12 July 2013

Future of the Woman Employment

Woman power is supposed to gain control over the global economy, politics and society in the next 5 years and the global income rate is growing enormously from US $13 trillion to US $18 trillion in the next 5 years. The role of the woman will become vivid as entrepreneurs, producers, consumers and employees with the population increase in China and India.

Woman will control 75% of the spending by 2028 as the global income of woman increases. The rise of the global income will directly impact with the GDP growth of China and India and US$5 trillion will be contributed from these countries.

The entire world is accepting the changes and it has even caused a revolution in male dominated economies. The Women Suffrage Movement which started in France in 1780s and 1790s resulted in many countries giving them that right in the latter half of the 19th century. International Alliance of Women founded in 1904 in Berlin campaign mostly for woman’s suffrage and represents the in 50 countries.

The European Commission in 2012 designed legislation with the purpose of placing 40% of woman in non - executive boards of publicly listed companies by 2020. Around the globe woman are earning US$ 12.1471 trillion which is forecasted to be US$ 16.7015 in 2014! More than half of the private wealth in the US is controlled by women with 80% of purchasing decisions are made by women too. In OECD countries 44% of civil jobs are held by women.


Despite of these progress the salary gap between women are 15% lesser than men which shows that the pay gap exists. A similar gap exists between the number of female and male entrepreneurs in 58 economies out of the 59 economies, only Ghana is an exception with 50% more female entrepreneurs than that of male entrepreneurs whereas South Korea a strong US ally with 20% lower female proportions.

The recent Harvard Business Review stated that the equality in the rate of men women employment can increase the GDP of the US, Japan and Egypt by 5%, 9%, and 34%, respectively. This review said that women and underutilized. In Saudi Arabia 57% of woman are graduates but their participation in the workforce is just limited to 12%. In India more women is worried about their safety, despite of this obstacle 5.5 million women start the employment every year.

In Europe Italy showed the second lowest female labor participation. While in Japan only 43% of women are trying to rejoin after maternity. It will be surprising to know that the US doesn’t support parental leaves with income. According to Tanzanian tribal laws only sons can inherit the land but the country has around 1.2 million women entrepreneurs. In South Africa a woman employee can get maternity leave only if she has continued working with the same company for the last two years.

Thursday 11 July 2013

A Summary from WEF Gender Gap Index 2012

The World Economic Forum started its efforts to capture the dimension and the impacts of the gender based disparities in 2006 and they released the latest report on Gender Gap in October 2012. The report aims to create awareness about the challenges which gender gaps create and on the possibilities by reducing these gender gaps.

The basic concepts that constitute the Gender Gap Index are 1) Measuring gaps 3) Gaps in Outcome variables 3) Ranking of the countries based on the gender equality. The Global Gender Gap Index has been divided into four sub indexes to examine the Gender Gap more effectively they are: 1) Economic Participation and related opportunities 2) Educational Attainment 3) Health and Survival 4) Political Empowerment.

The Scandinavian countries held the top positions in this index as the same as in 2011. Iceland, Finland, Norway and Sweden are the first four countries in the Gender Gap Index which successfully closed 80% of gender gaps. These high-income economies have distributed the resources and opportunities equally between women and that became a reason for their gender equality. They achieved the literacy level of 99-100% many decades back, the level of higher education has increased and that makes women as the majority of the technical work force even the salary gap between both genders is the lowest in the world.

The Scandinavian countries were the first countries to give right to vote for women Finland in 1906 Norway 1913, Denmark, 1915, Iceland 1915 and Sweden 1919. In 1970s Denmark, Sweden and Norway introduced voluntary gender quotas due to this policy these countries have the largest number of women politicians. Sweden ranks first with the largest number of women parliamentarians in the world which is 44.7%.

From Asia, Philippines rank in the first place in health, education, economic participation and political empowerment. They even closed the gender-gap in education and health in 2012. Among the Middle East countries, Israel ranked at the 50th place with a higher than average performance in economic participation, political empowerment, and opportunity.

The UAE is the only country from the Middle East which has closed the education gap. The decrease in earned income and women in parliament affected the rankings of the UAE which was in the position of 107. Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar were ranked at 109, 111 and 115. The overall ranking of The United States of America was at 22nd with 8th rank in economic participation and opportunity, 1st in educational attainment, 33rd place in health and survival, 55th place in political empowerment

Wednesday 3 July 2013

The Aftermath of An ArabSpring

The unemployment rate of 13.2 % has certainly a big role in the ouster of Mr Mohammad Mursi from the chair of Egyptian President. Mr Mursi who assumed office on 30 June 2012 granted himself unlimited powers to legislate without judicial review and supervision resulted in 2012 Egyptian Protests.

The economic growth of Egypt is stagnant for the last 2 decades and the situation of the country is not favorable for any foreign investments or any growth in tourism which is the main source of income for Egyptians where 12% of Egyptians work for. This sector alone provides $11 billion to the growth. .

A report in  May by the UN says that the period of 2010-2012 witnessed increased food insecurity and poverty, where 17% of the population doesn’t have sufficient food which was 14% in 2009.

Mr Mursi who was the first elected President in Egypt had kept the agenda to reduce unemployment below 7% during his election campaigns. The unemployment among the population under 30 is 80% where poverty rate is also high which makes 2 of every 5 Egyptians live on less than $2 per day.

The foreign exchange reserve has reduced to 60% due to the lessened activity in tourism and foreign investment sectors; growth rate has plunged to 3% and since the beginning of 2013 Egyptian Pound faced a drop less than 8% which made 7Egyptian Pounds/1US$. Parents are forced to pull kids from the school due to the rise in fees due to the devaluation in the Egyptian Pound.

The first 4 months of 2013 witnessed jump in food prices to 10%! The discussions between Egypt and IMF for a fund of $4.8 bn didn’t get materialize. This fund could be a boon for support for public finances and in this current scenario IMF is careful about taking up this risk.
Egypt got foreign reserve support from Libya ($2billion), Qatar ($3billion), and Turkey ($1billion) of $2billion budget support package. Mursi government was not willing for the regulations put forward by the IMF which delayed the discussion over the fund.

Monday 1 July 2013

Is EU Accession a Remedy for Croatian Crisis?

The nuptial knot is now tied between the EU and Croatia after a decade long betrothal which was described as “painful discussions” by the President Ivo Jospovic. Entry to the EU in the strangest times has generated so much of assumptions among the economists in the world. Croatia will be the 28th member of the EU after Bulgaria and Romania becoming members in 2007.

EU commission was very careful in accepting Croatia as a member and they werCroatia was  served a warning to control the corruption which is widespread in the country which makes Croatia the 2nd place in most corrupted countries in the Europe behind Slovenia. The corruption even led it’s former President Mr Ivo Sanader, who was the mastermind behind the EU accession procedures, to jail on a corruption charges of €5 million as a bribe from various institutions including a bank and a pharma company!

Croatia has an unemployment rate of 20% along with the threat of corruption and human trafficking. Became an independent country in 1991, Croatia is in severe economic crisis in the last 5 consecutive years. Many economists foresee a chance of Croatia opting for a bailout immediately after its EU entry as a solution for its crisis. But this was denied by Mr Croatia’s Foreign minister Mr Vesna Pusic. The European parliament even made an announcement through its President Mr Martin Schulz that EU membership will not be the solution for Croatian Crisis.

Advocates of this accession find peace in the forecast that the double digit unemployment rate can come down as the Croatians finding jobs in prosperous EU countries and with the help of foreign investments Croatia’s economy will definitely recover. They keep faith in the EU leadership based in Brussels that they will keep check on the corruption and administration in the country.

In the late 19th century Bismarck predicted issues among the Balkan countries will cause the next European war. Croatia has vital issues like rising debt, more risk of defaults, which can be a burden on EU taxpayers. Croatia, which has lost a huge number of its population in the wars including the war Against Yugoslavia is surely looking at this accession to be a long-term solution for their all kind of problems.